Chart of the Week: Newton MA Outpacing the Bay State

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It’s no secret Newton is one of the most desirable, and most expensive, community in Massachusetts. But Greater Boston residents often forget the rest of the state has a very different real estate experience. Just how different?

In the since 2013, Newton prices have gone from a median price of $826,000 to $1,186,000 in year-to-date calculations. Massachusetts as a whole the numbers are very different. From 2013’s median price of $295,000, a single family home is now at a median price of $325,000.

But forget the absolute values, and look at the percentage change. As Newton single family home prices increased by 30% the past two years, while the Bay State has seen a tame 10% increase in median home prices. Chart below is courtesy of Raveis.com.

There are two ways I can tell the story behind the chart: either Newton is a leading indicator of what will happen in the rest of the state, or this is evidence of a more permanent uneven economic recovery in Massachusetts.

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Chart of The Week: Newton Single Family Home Median Price

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Do you remember when you could buy a house in Newton for $280,000? I am too young to remember, but I was a real estate agent in 2005, when prices skyrocketed to a median price of $820,000. February 2015, median price was $1,110,000.

This week I am looking at the median sale price of Newton houses for the month of February from 1987 to 2015. February is a finicky month. It is easily affected by the weather. It is when Spring market is suppose to commence, but sometimes does not. What is important about February in the real estate market world, it sets the tone with which we will experience our most important months of sales, March through June.

Looking at this chart, created by the Warren Group who compile this information, we see the 32% hike in median price from February 2014 to February 2015. As buyers grumble about this, I can remind them of the 35% hike of 1998 and the 42% spike of 2005.

Making a bet on what happens next depends on whether you are a big picture or a details kind of person. “Zooming out” and looking at the trend line, the long term price trajectory of Newton homes is upwards. Looking more closely, you find years of price adjustments following a couple years of price increases. Most major price hikes have been followed by an ease in prices the following year. This may be encouraging news for buyers who are frustrated by the bidding and lack of inventory. These buyers may want to wait out the tight market, (unless they are both buying and selling).

No matter how you look at this chart, and if you even care of such statistics, I will share the advice I give my clients: work around your life’s schedule and don’t try and time the market. For every optimist there is a nay sayer, every analysis has holes, and every statistic can be doubted.

As you ponder the median price of Newton single family homes, astonished by $1,110,000, look forward to the day you say, “Remember when you could buy a house in Newton for only a million?”

 

952 Beacon Street, Newton Center 02459

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Beautifully preserved Victorian-era home in exceptional Newton Center location.

You will appreciate the period details of the house as soon as you enter. On the first floor, French doors lead to gracious living room with fireplace, open to the gracious dining room. Bright and cheerful kitchen with large windows and a butler’s pantry.

Off the foyer there is a study / library with built-in shelving. On the second level you will find the master-suite with extra-large bathroom and fireplace. Bedrooms are generous in size and separated by the landing. Bow window with built-in window seat in natural wood. Convenient second floor laundry and a back hallway leading to kitchen.

Third floor has high ceilings and four spacious bedrooms, full bath, plus sewing room. Whimsical decorations perfectly blend with the natural woodwork and plenty of natural light.
Central air system. Exterior features include a wrap-around porch, back deck and yard.

This beautiful house was built in 1903, and it is located a short walk to shops, restaurants, Crystal Lake, the Newton Center Playground, Mason Rice elementary school.

Price: $1,285,000 Rooms: 13 Bedrooms: 7 Baths: 3.5 Square Feet: 3658 Acres: 0.15

 

Home Tour Video:

Click on the map for an interactive version:

newton center map

Newton Single Family Houses Market Update: March 2014

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Newton MA’s housing market has been eliciting many complaints from buyers for about a year now. The tight market is putting pressure on prices and many young families are priced out.

Housing Market Update for Newton MA

Since 2010, house prices have climbed from an average of $744,367 to $1,167,944, according to statistics from Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

Newton Single Family Sold, 2010-2014
Sold Homes Average Price Average Days on Market
March 2010 32 $744,367 65
March 2011 28 $906,121 101
March 2012 29 $718,552 69
March 2013 26 $974,728 60
March 2014 33 $1,167,944 72

Currently, there are 100 houses on market, with 54 of them priced between $1,000,000-$2,500,000.

There are 132 pending sales, 68 of these homes price between $900,000-$2,000,000. Compared with the number of currently listed homes, this is a very tight market.

Newton Center, 02459, Housing Update

Newton Center, zip code 02459, is especially desirable. The market action index (MAI) is a measure of the housing market’s orientation. A number above 30 is a seller’s market. Currently, at 48, Newton Center has a strong seller’s market.

It’s easy to see why Newton Center has a strong seller’s market: inventory has been on a steady decline for three years. The seasonal turnaround starts around early Spring, and we see a slight rise in inventory this year. But will it exceed last years?

My prediction is that inventory will rise and buyers will regain some control over the market. In Newton, and particularly Newton Center, 2014 will continue the trend as a seller’s market, but with a decline from the current position.

This year seems extremely slow so far, this is due to the weather and lack of motivation to both prepare a home for market and go out to look at homes January through most of March. A turnaround in April and May is expected.

Buyers have no reason to rejoice, but at least breath a little.

Click on the link to stay current with weekly or monthly market update in your zip code. Know how much your home’s value is changing, and when the best time buy and sell your real estate.

Renovate or Sell As Is?

Should I Renovate or Sell As Is?

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When prospective home sellers invite me for a consultation, the most common question is not,”What is my home’s value?” but, “Should I renovate or sell the house as is?”

selling house in Newton MA

If your house is on a large parcel, it may be worth more than you think!

Several considerations are made to answer the questions of renovating or selling as-is. At the top of the list is the local real estate market conditions. No one answer can be given to this question, and discussing the house without a understanding the market is futile.

The advice here applies especially to South Newton MA, Chesnut Hill MA and Brookline MA, as well as parts of Boston, where land is scarce and the houses are old. There is a great demand for luxury housing in the Boston area, which drive the pressure on the land and tear-down markets.

Brookline MA, for example, has a very high demand for land and tear-downs. An old house which can be taken down can be worth more than a bigger house, if the land is larger and buildable. Furthermore, the zoning of a parcel dictates how many units can be built and the size of the homes. This is key knowledge to the equation.

Once the local real estate market and the town zoning is understood, review the considerations below to learn how I advise my clients.

In order for me to recommend renovations to a Brookline or Newton house, these are the things I look for:

1. The home owners have energy, patience, interest, and financial resources to make changes.

If a you some cash and bit of interest in renovating things, some projects may yield a return greater than 100%. Make sure you do ONLY those projects. Don’t make these common home improvement mistakes.

2. The home is in generally good shape already.

Maybe you already have a new kitchen, so modernizing the bath would increase the value of the home. Or the home is in perfect condition other than some old carpeting, then I recommend changing the carpet. Another scenario is if the inside of the home is updated, but the exterior is a bit shabby. Here I recommend investing in making the house look great outside.

3. Market conditions favor home buyers.

Home buyers, to distinguish from investors or developers, tend to want to do less work. Walking into a house which is ready is highy valued by young families and overworked professionals.

In order to recommend selling your home as is, I look for the following:

selling land in Brookline MA

Your property’s value depends on the town’s zoning code.

1. If you can’t do the work, or it will be a great burden, then don’t!

Even projects which may be a good financial investment re not worth your stress and exhaustion.

2. The home needs too much work.

If your house hasn’t been updated many years, or if the house is in a consistent condition throughout, then sell the home as it is, to the right buyer. Don’t waste time and money on renovating a pink, mud-back tile bathroom if the kitchen is to remain avocado color and the wallpaper is peeling in the dining room.

It is likely the next owner will take on a major project and your bathroom may be turned into a pantry. Don’t put money into a part of the home, when the rest will remain outdated.

3. The market favors developers.

A developer is not paying a premium for upgrading something. If the devlopers are the strength in the market, they may be able to offer you more than a home buyer. Always speak with a local and highly experienced agent before you may any such decision.

4. Your house is in the immediate Boston Area and you are sitting on a chunk of land.

On a large lot in Boston, Newton, or Brookline, the house is almost always secondary. If the lot can be subdivided, if it can be turned into a multi-unit property, or if your house is small - the value is in the potential, rather than the house.

Whenever you consider selling your home, you must first speak with a real estate agent who can identify the strengths of the house. Learn the current market value of your home (Zestimates do not count), and who is the most likely buyer for your home. Only then decide to renovate or sell as is.

Thinking of selling your home? Interested in a free market evaluation of a property? Contact me today!

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Home Prices in Newton Center, 02459

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Houses in Newton Center come in diverse sizes, ages and styles. Zip code 02459 covers a large residential area, from the historical Victorians on Beacon Street to the late 1940’s ranches of Oak Hill. From splendor to tear-downs, we have it all. And with Newton MA so desirable, prices are rising with the large jump in 2013.

Newton Center Home Prices, Median Price:
2011 $872,500
2012 $875,000
2013 $1,000,000

The chart below shows the median listing price for properties on market, and the trend in the market in the past three years. What is most apparent is the sharp fall in prices off-season.

Why do prices fall so sharply during the slow months of real estate?

The table below shows the Newton Center housing market divided into quartiles by asking price. Note the fourth quartile, the one with the lowest price range, has the longest days on market. Although houses in the lower price range are often highly desirable as they allow families to move into Newton with greater ease, a portion of this market is houses requiring extensive renovation or have another attribute making them difficult to sell.

If you considering selling your home in Newton Center, what does this mean to you? Since home buyers are still outnumbering homes for sale, the “off market” season is a great time to be a home seller at any price range. Your competition will be minimal, positioning your home along side stale inventory.

Are you interested in following the Newton Center real estate housing market? Do you want to be knowledgeable in current housing trends? Sign-up for weekly market update.

Houses Sold in 02459: Market Report October 2013

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Newton houses are flying off the market, and zip code 02459 has been especially tight. Below find a comparison of recent sales statistics in Octobers of 2011, 2012, and 2013. “Sold houses” means closings, so these houses likely came on market in August, a very quiet month in real estate in Newton. But even with the small sample, the market changes are impressive.

Time Frame October 2011 October 2012 October 2013
Number of Sales 15 14 9
Average Price (rounded to nearest $1,000) $886,000 $1,080,000 $956,000
Median Price (rounded to nearest $1,000) $725,000 $913,000 $915,000
Average Days on Market 96 71 17
Average Sale Price to List Price Ratio 95% 96% 100%

 

The best indicators of the tightening housing market in Newton Center are the last two, highlighted in green. Average days on market dropped from 96 in 2011 to 17 in 2013. And the average sale price to list price ratio has gone up from 95% to 100%. This means, on average, houses sell for asking price.

Houses sell quickly and buyers pay what the seller asks.

Houses in 02459 are hot!

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Luxury Houses in Chestnut Hill MA: Days on Market Getting Shorter

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Chestnut Hill MA houses come in a wide variety of styles and prices. The most obvious reason is Chesnut Hill is not a municipality, but a zip code including parts of several towns: Pieces of Brookline, Newton, West Roxbury and a nibble of Brighton. Houses in West Roxbury will be priced lower than Brookline, even if next door to each other. This is due to the difference in amenities, namely schools, in which Brookline exceeds Boston.

Houses in 02467 range from the modest Cape to the most magnificent mansions Brookline has to offer. All of them have an improving market and find buyers fairly quickly. Below find a break-down of the four quartiles of current Chestnut Hill single-family listings, their median price range and average days on market:

7-day Market Stats by Quartile for Single Family properties in
CHESTNUT HILL, MA 02467 as of 08 Nov 2013
Quartile Median Price Sq. Ft. Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOM
Top/First $4,500,000 6,000 40,075 6.18 6.00 64 11 1 1 55
Upper/Second $2,285,000 5,400 22,651 5.82 5.05 42 11 0 1 85
Lower/Third $1,595,000 4,000 14,810 4.64 4.32 36 11 0 1 80
Bottom/Fourth $1,075,000 2,612 7,841 4.18 2.73 62 11 0 0 76

 

A snapshot of current market conditions shows an unexpected market trend: Days on market for the most expensive houses is the shortest! Conventional wisdom says the higher the price, the longer it takes to sell. Because this is a snapshot of current conditions, we don’t know how long these houses will take to sell, but we do know the eleven most expensive houses have been on market, on average, less time than the least expensive eleven houses in Chestnut Hill.

The graph below shows the trend of recent months. Although in general expensive homes have taken longer to sell than the rest of the market, in recent weeks the most expensive houses sitting on market haven’t been there for long.

What does this mean? 1. New luxury homes are coming on market, pulling down the average days on market of old listings. 2. Luxury Chestnut Hill homes which have been sitting on market for a long time are now off market – either under contract or terminated listings.

The luxury housing market in 02467 is strong, and will probably continue to show signs of strength though the spring market.

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Newton Houses Take A Dive…Time on Market Dropping Fast!

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Market time for sold houses in Newton is dropping fast. In May 2012 the average days on market for a single-family house in Newton was 64 days, less than half from the recent peak in January 2011 of 155 days.

May of 2012 has many similarities to the peak of the housing market boom in May 2005. Time on market was almost the same, just over two months. Average sale price is in the mid $900,000’s, and the number of sales is around 50.

But similar numbers are not necessarily results of similar conditions. Buyers are less exuberant and more cautious, and sellers are still waiting for better market prices.

The buyers who are moving are the ones who must. Buyers who have less pressing needs are taking their time. In 2005, my sense was of greater urgency, a fear of missing a home, of pricing rising too fast, or mortgage rates going up.

Some agents say conditions are the same, I disagree. Multiple offers and shortage of homes make it seem so. But don’t forget we’re in a different economy. Today, many potential sellers are unable to sell due to loss of equity. Mortgage regulations leave sub-prime buyers out, and you need more than a pulse to qualify for a loan.

If you believe conditions are as they were during the boom then brace yourself because we all know what happened next. Instead, this is just the start of a new cycle and more needs to change to return the confidence of seven years ago.

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Condo or Single Family?

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Buyers sometimes shun the idea of a condo when they can find a single family in their price range. I can understand that. There are so many advantages to a single family! Privacy, control over the house, your own yard and driveway, etc.

Boston real estate prices are comparatively high. Thus I suggest, for those buyers who are searching in the lower end of the single family housing market, to also look at similarly priced condos.

Here are two West Roxbury homes for sale. Both are great option for anyone looking for a home priced in the $400,000’s. First, it’s the two level condo at 75 Russett Road and the second is a ranch at 8 Cricket Lane. Both are superb locations, have two full baths, and both homes are easy to love. The condo, priced 439K needs no work and has extensive well maintained beautiful wood details. The house, priced 449K is a single level and will need a facelift, especially kitchen and bath.

It’s your choice.

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